#3: May 8, 2000

Do you want some proof that run production is at an all-time high [as if the 17-16 Texas/Oakland game this weekend wasn't enough]. You gotta go back…back…back to the year 1930 to compare it with. Though the stock market was depressed back then, not so on the field of play; in an average NL game, teams scored 11.37 runs per game. The AL averaged 10.82 runs per tilt. As of 8 May, 2000 AL games average 10.59 runs; NL games average 10.42 runs.

You don't have to be a Buffalo SABR to know that run-production is at hyper-levels. What has all abuzz is as to why. While I am not about to make a bold statement as to the root cause, here are some widely viewed hypotheses [My thanks to SABR member Mark Armour for compiling much of this data]:

1. Watered Down Pitching. This is not surprising, since the media seems to have embraced this conclusion, but it is generally accompanied by a lack of evidence. There are more runs, so the pitchers must be lousy. Subconsciously, this may be related to the old notion that pitching is 90% of baseball. When the Baby Boomers and older generations pine about the game of late-1960s/early-'70s [when a run was a run], you rarely hear it mentioned that the hitters were lousy. Using the assumption that pitching is watered-down, we would still expect the best pitchers in the game today to stack up well against the best of recent years. Take a look at the 15^th-ranked pitcher in ERA over the past 30 years:

YR	AL PITCHER	TEAM	ERA		NL PITCHER	TEAM	ERA
1969	NAGY	BOS	3.11		JENKINS	CHI	3.21
1974	TANANA	CAL	3.12		ELLIS	PIT	3.15
1979	COMER	TEX	3.68		SHIRLEY	SD	3.38
1984	BUTCHER	MIN	3.44		WHITSON	SD	3.24
1989	K. BROWN	TEX	3.35		M. MADDUX	CHI	2.95
1994	CLARK	CLE	3.82		BURKETT	SF	3.62
1999	FINLEY	ANA	4.43		BOTTENFIELD	STL	3.97

 

This table indicates a trend that even the upper-shelf pitchers are giving up more runs. The 15th best pitcher in each league in 1999 gave up nearly 1/3 more earned runs than his counterpart did 30 years earlier. And 1969 was an expansion year! Other than a Pedro and "Big Unit," it seems that they hitters are feeding off of "all" pitchers -- good, bad, and ugly!

Add to the mix the fact that some of your best pitchers are relegated to reliever roles as set-up men or closers. That is the modern-day strategy, after all. Managers are taking away quality innings from ace relievers, who would probably be better suited as a team's #2 starter.

2. Smaller Ballparks. Three ballparks (Enron, Pac Bell, and Camden Yards) have outfield fences less than the ML rulebook minimum spec. of 325'. Yes, there are Comericas and Safecos in the mix, but future ballparks will be getting smaller, not bigger. Big hitters in small parks equates to the crowd-pleasing and ESPN appeasing home run
3. Smaller Strike Zone. If the umpires called the strike zone in the rule book, offense would decrease. The knee-high and letter-high strike are just not called anymore. It seems as if today's strike zone is from the mid-thigh to just above the belly button. This causes pitchers to get behind in the count and have no recourse but to throw one into the batter's wheelhouse.
4. Larger Players. Athletes in all sports are getting larger, but baseball is different in that increased strength and power favors the hitter. Yes, more pitchers throw in the high-90s these days and strikeouts are more prevalent. But arm mechanics and physical limitations of the elbow and shoulder joints pretty much precludes that we will ever have a 110 MPH pitcher without. Hitters do not face these potential injuries, allowing the ball to be hit harder and further. Hitters work out with weights nearly year-round. Jim French, a former reserve catcher for the Washington Senators once told me that he (nor anyone on the team) never lifted a weight since no one knew of the benefits. "They [the coaches] just ran, ran, ran our asses off," said French.
5. Decreased Premium on Defensive Skill. This is both real (defensive skill is easier to find) and perceived(managers consider defense less when making personnel decisions). Throughout baseball history, the importance of tangible defense skills has continually decreased. Gloves are bigger, fields are perfect, balls are perfect. Defense is easier to play, and therefore there is a less of a premium on defensive skill. Do you think a career .175 hitter like Ray Oyler would be a starter today? Even at the skill positions, managers have more freedom. Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski - all played middle infield in the minor leagues. Were they to come up today, some of them might have continued to play the infield. Conversely, were ARod (who is larger than all of the above players) to have come up in the 1950s, wouldn't he have been made an outfielder? Taking the positions in aggregate, a 1996 first baseman was 55% more likely to homer than his 1976 counterpart (home run rate of .042 vs. .027), whereas a 1996 middle infielder was 175% more likely to homer than a 1976 middle infielder (.0184 vs. .0067).
6. Harder Baseballs. One former Major Leaguer admitted to me that today's balls are like rocks compared to the balls he swung at in the '80s. While scientists claim the compression tests don't support this, the Costa Rican ball is probably wound tighter than the Haitian ball.